Trends of Radicalisation

Kosovo/3.2 Research Report July 2021

Abstract

This report explores the most impactful manifestations of radicalization in Kosovo while identifying specific “hotspot” areas that provide insights into how specific incidents of premeditated extremist violence can indicate general radicalization trends within the country. The selection of these ‘hotspot’ areas is done based on the prevalence of violent extremist incidents, the type of radicalization, and the potential of these zones to speak to larger radicalization trends across the country. As such, the selected ‘hotspot’ areas should not be viewed as compact zones of radicalization since the radical acts of a fringe group of individuals are not endorsed by the broader community. In selecting Prishtina, Mitrovica, and Kacanik as ‘hotspots’ of radicalization, it should be made clear that the intention is not to single out these communities as spaces of impending danger given that overwhelmingly they are considered as safe. Instead, the aim is to take these municipalities as units of analysis for exploring certain elements of radicalization that can be applicable across the country.

The analysis of these ‘hotspot’ areas or case studies is based on a correlation with macro, meso, and micro conditions in the backdrop of the violent acts, while positioning these acts on the injustice-grievance-alienation-polarization (IGAP) spectrum. The report finds that among the main micro-level factors influencing radicalization across case studies include marginalization, humiliation, moral outrage and revenge, identity-seeking, and redemption. These factors are particularly relevant in cases when there are available records about how these themes tie to the traumatic experience of the Kosovo War, the still unmet expectations in Kosovo’s democratized society, and the social isolation that certain actors experience in their communities as part of their identity or socio-economic background. For meso-level factors, the report finds that the role of social networks (both in the virtual and offline space), charismatic (religious) leaders, and external radical influences which made their way into local communities as key factors in driving radicalization, both in terms of islamist extremism and ethno-nationalism. This report finds that fragile and poor socio-economic living environments characterised by a lack of life opportunities, a legacy of conflict and unresolved disputes as well as weak institutional reach in peripheral areas of Kosovo as influencing factors at the systematic or macro-level.

Lack of timely government action to prevent radicalization, lax rule of law enforcement mechanisms and limited institutional reach, well-organized recruitment networks into violent extremism, prevalence of online tools as sources of information and communication, and influence of external radical social networks acted as facilitating conditions. In coding for motivational factors through the I-GAP spectrum, themes of perceived injustice, alienation and polarisation are prevalent across the case studies, however, given the availability of data – the disproportionate research and policy focus towards islamist extremism stands out. This calls for greater attention towards radicalization trends such as ethno-nationalism, both in terms of understanding how it is being manifested in Kosovo as well as in findings ways to how to best address it.